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RAS PhysicsГеомагнетизм и аэрономия Geomagnetism and Aeronomy

  • ISSN (Print) 0016-7940
  • ISSN (Online) 3034-5022

Assessment of the amplitude of variations in total solar irradiance in the past

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PII
S3034502225020124-1
DOI
10.7868/S3034502225020124
Publication type
Article
Status
Published
Authors
М. G. Ogurtdov
  • Affiliation:
    Ioffe institute
    Central Astronomical Observatory of the Russian Academy of Sciences at Pulkovo
Volume/ Edition
Volume 65 / Issue number 2
Pages
294-304
Abstract
An assessment was made of how reliably various modern reconstructions of total solar irradiance reconstruct long-term changes in this value in the past. To solve this problem, a forecast of long-term changes in total solar radiation in 1978−2017 was made using seven reconstructions covering the last 12−13 centuries. The paleoreconstructions used describe long-term variations with average amplitudes from 0.22 W m–2 (series with low amplitude) to 2.36 W m–2 (series with high amplitude). A nonlinear analog prediction method was applied, and the prediction results were compared with the actually measured values. It turned out that the experimentally measured variations in total solar radiation are better predicted by the low-amplitude reconstructions. However, the possibility that solar radiation in the past experienced more significant variations and the increase in total solar radiation after the Maunder Minimum reached 2.5 W m–2 cannot be completely excluded yet. Possible climatic consequences of such solar radiation variations are discussed.
Keywords
Солнечная активность палеоастрофика Солнца полная солнечная радиация
Date of publication
02.06.2025
Year of publication
2025
Number of purchasers
0
Views
55

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